Prediksi XAU/USD 10 Oktober 2025

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🧭 1. Market Structure (Daily Context)

• Gold baru saja mencetak rally agresif dari 3880 → 4058, lalu muncul candle bearish impulsif dengan body besar menandakan retrace kuat (profit-taking).
• Struktur belum bearish secara penuh karena:
  • Higher High (HH) masih di 4058.
  • Higher Low (HL) terakhir di sekitar 3880 belum ditembus.
    ➡ Artinya: tren masih bullish, namun saat ini pasar sedang melakukan retracement sehat ke area discount.

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📏 2. Fibonacci Retracement (Swing 3880 → 4058)

Level	Harga
38.2%	3990
50%	3969
61.8%	3948
79%	3915

📍 Discount / OTE Zone: 3969–3915
➡ Area ini menjadi institutional re-entry zone untuk buyer besar.
Menariknya, harga 3976 saat ini tepat di level 50% retracement, artinya pasar berada di tengah discount area → potensi smart money re-entry.

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💰 3. Big Round Numbers (BRN)

• 4000.00 → Level psikologis besar (equilibrium zone).
• 3950.00 → BRN minor, area OTE + likuiditas bawah.
• 3900.00 → Liquidity pool berikutnya (jika retrace lebih dalam).
  ➡ Harga 3976 berada di antara dua BRN penting (4000 & 3950) → zona keputusan untuk buyer institusional.

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🧱 4. Support & Resistance (Daily Key Levels)

Level	Tipe	Fungsi
4060	Resistance	External liquidity (previous high)
4000	Resistance	Mid-range / equilibrium
3950	Support	OB + FVG overlap
3915	Support kuat	79% retrace + major OB

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🧩 5. ICT Confluences Checklist

Komponen	Deskripsi	Status
HTF Bias	Bullish continuation (retracement phase)	✅
Struktur	HH masih intact, HL belum break	✅
Fibonacci retrace	Harga tepat di 50% (3969–3976)	✅
OB/FVG overlap	Di area 3950–3970	✅
Liquidity clarity	SSL di bawah 3920, BSL di atas 4050	✅
Session logic	Daily retrace biasanya selesai di akhir minggu	✅
SMT/TS divergence	Tidak ada bearish divergence ekstrem	✅

📊 Total confluence = 7/7 → Probabilitas setup: ±85% (very strong).

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🎯 6. Entry Plan (High-Probability ICT Setup)

Parameter	Detail
Direction	Buy (re-entry on discount)
Entry Zone (Discount OTE)	3960–3935
Stop Loss (SL)	3915 (di bawah OB & liquidity)
TP1	4040 (internal liquidity)
TP2	4060 (external liquidity / swing high)
TP3	4100 (extended liquidity)
RRR	±1:3
Invalidation	D1 close di bawah 3910 (BOS bearish confirmed)

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⚙️ 7. Scenario Summary

Skenario	Entry	SL	TP	Probabilitas	Catatan
Buy continuation	3960–3935	3915	4040–4060	85%	OTE buy di discount zone
Sell retrace intraday	4000–4020	4050	3950	65%	Hanya valid untuk scalper

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📈 8. Kesimpulan Akhir

• Bias utama: Bullish continuation setelah retracement sehat.
• Area entry ideal: 3960–3935 (discount zone confluence).
• SL: 3915 | TP: 4040–4060 | RRR: 1:3 | Probabilitas: ±85%.
• Tunggu daily confirmation (rejection wick / MSS bullish di H4/H1) sebelum buy entry.

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💬 Ringkasan Singkat

Gold saat ini (3976) berada tepat di area discount 50% retracement dari swing utama 3880–4058.
Selama D1 tidak menutup di bawah 3915, struktur tetap bullish.
Idealnya tunggu konfirmasi rejection di 3960–3935 untuk buy re-entry dengan target ke 4040–4060 (BSL zone).

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