Prediksi XAU/USD 9 Oktober 2025
Prediksi XAU/USD 8 Oktober 2025
October 8, 2025
Prediksi XAU/USD 10 Oktober 2025
October 10, 2025
🧭 1. Market Structure (H1 Context)
- Setelah rally kuat dari 3940 → 4049, kini harga telah retrace ±100 pips.
- Struktur masih bullish, karena belum ada Break of Structure (BOS) ke arah bawah — harga hanya membentuk retracement swing.
- Candle terakhir menunjukkan rejection wick di bawah 4005, indikasi buyer mulai masuk.
➡ Bias utama: Bullish continuation (retrace healthy ke area discount).
📏 2. Fibonacci Retracement (Swing 3940 → 4049)
| Level | Harga |
|---|---|
| 50% | 3994 |
| 61.8% | 3975 |
| 79% | 3950 |
📍 OTE Buy Zone (Discount Area): 3950 – 3975
➡ Ini adalah zona yang berpotensi jadi titik re-entry institusional.
➡ Terdapat juga Fair Value Gap (FVG) dan Bullish Order Block (OB) kecil di area 3960–3970, yang menambah konfluensi kuat.
💰 3. Big Round Numbers (BRN)
- 4000.00 → level equilibrium (harga baru saja menembus ke bawah).
- 3950.00 → BRN minor dalam OTE zone → draw on liquidity target retrace.
- 4050 / 4100 → BSL (Buy Side Liquidity) di atas high sebelumnya → potensi TP continuation.
🧩 4. ICT Confluences Checklist
| Komponen | Deskripsi | Status |
|---|---|---|
| HTF Bias (H4–D1) | Bullish continuation | ✅ |
| Struktur H1 | Belum BOS bearish | ✅ |
| Fibonacci retrace (61.8–79%) | 3975–3950 | ✅ |
| OB + FVG overlap | Ya, di 3960–3970 | ✅ |
| Liquidity clarity | SSL di bawah 3940, BSL di atas 4060 | ✅ |
| Session logic | Potensi retrace London–NY | ✅ |
| SMT/TS Divergence | Tidak signifikan | ✅ |
📊 Total confluence = 7/7 → Probabilitas setup ±85% (very strong setup).
🎯 5. Entry Plan (Bullish Continuation)
| Parameter | Detail |
|---|---|
| Direction | Buy |
| Entry Zone | 3950–3975 (Discount OTE zone) |
| Stop Loss (SL) | 3935 (di bawah OB & SSL) |
| TP1 | 4040 (BSL internal) |
| TP2 | 4060 (external liquidity) |
| TP3 | 4090 (ERL projection) |
| RRR | ±1:3 |
| Invalidation | H1 close di bawah 3930 (break structure) |
⚠️ 6. News Awareness (9 Okt 2025)
- USD PPI / CPI follow-up data – potensi retrace intraday (menarik harga ke OTE zone).
- FOMC Remarks (malam sesi NY) – kemungkinan memicu continuation rally.
💡 Skenario ideal: harga retrace ke 3960–3970 (OTE zone) sebelum continuation rally ke 4060–4090.
📈 7. Kesimpulan Akhir
- Bias: Bullish continuation
- Entry optimal: 3950–3975 (discount + OB + FVG)
- SL: 3935 | TP1: 4040 | TP2: 4060 | TP3: 4090
- RRR: ±1:3
- Probabilitas setup: ±85%
➡ Tunggu retrace ke area OTE sebelum entry buy — hindari buy langsung di 4010 karena masih di premium zone.
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